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Boys XC County Championship Projections
By: Kevin Milsted
webmaster@mocorunning.com
2017-10-17


Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 7 (10/15/2017). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Projected Boys 5k County Championship Performances
================================================================================
Pl	Name			School		Year	Project Time	Points
================================================================================
1	Adam Nakasaka		B-CC		2018	15:51.0		1
2	Obsaa Feda		Northwood	2019	15:55.3		2
3	Mark Unger		R. Montgomery	2019	15:55.6		3
4	Garrett Suhr		R. Montgomery	2020	16:03.5		4
5	Ryan Lockett		Poolesville	2018	16:10.2		5
6	Chris Thoms		Quince Orchard	2018	16:11.8		6
7	Aaron Bratt		Whitman		2019	16:14.2		7
8	John Riker		Wootton		2019	16:17.3		8
9	Noah Clifford		Einstein	2018	16:17.6		9
10	Zachary Worthman	Clarksburg	2019	16:27.0		10
11	Josh Fry		B-CC		2018	16:28.6		11
12	Joachim El-Masry	R. Montgomery	2018	16:33.0		12
13	Simeon Mussie		Einstein	2018	16:36.8		13
14	Jackson Kilosky		Clarksburg	2018	16:37.2		14
15	Tyler Wilson		Einstein	2018	16:39.4		15
16	Moti Heda		Springbrook	2018	16:41.2		16
17	Newell Mulugeta		Paint Branch	2019	16:44.4		17
18	Chase Osborne		Northwest	2018	16:44.8		18
19	Nicholas Olano		R. Montgomery	2020	16:47.7		19
20	Ethan Tagliere		Sherwood	2019	16:48.1		20
21	Peter Antonetti		Gaithersburg	2018	16:48.6		21
22	Nicholas Karayianis	Churchill	2020	16:48.6		22
23	Surafel Mengist		Springbrook	2020	16:49.8		23
24	Baraka Sila		Northwood	2019	16:50.1		24
25	Ayu Fantaw		Northwood	2020	16:55.3		25
26	Sam Rose Davidoff	Blair		2019	16:59.2		26
27	Daniel Rogers		Northwest	2018	17:01.7		27
28	Gideon Giorgis		Paint Branch	2018	17:06.2		28
29	Anthony Meza		Poolesville	2018	17:06.4		29
30	Dalton Yu		Whitman		2019	17:06.7		30
31	Tamrat Snyder		Damascus	2020	17:06.7		31
32	Evan Pollack		Blake		2018	17:06.8		32
33	Rodrigo Yepez-Lopez	Walter Johnson	2020	17:08.1		33
34	Vincente Maltagliati	Paint Branch	2019	17:09.5		34
35	Stefan Ney		Northwest	2020	17:09.7		35
36	Sean Enright		Sherwood	2020	17:10.0		36
37	Michael Madrigal	B-CC		2019	17:10.2		37
38	Obi Onwuamaegbu		Whitman		2019	17:10.2		38
39	Richard Qiao		Wootton		2019	17:11.6		39
40	Timothy Franklin	Gaithersburg	2019	17:12.2		40
41	Jordan La		Churchill	2019	17:13.0		41
42	Benjamin Lesser		Whitman		2020	17:13.0		42
43	Kyle Emery		Churchill	2018	17:14.4		43
44	Leoluca Cannuscio	Blair		2019	17:14.9		44
45	Nathaniel Kinyuanjui	Blair		2019	17:16.5		45
46	Aaron Forest		Churchill	2019	17:16.8		46
47	Aidan Smyth		B-CC		2019	17:17.0		47
48	Owen Hananel		Walter Johnson	2018	17:17.7		48
49	Ryan Temple		Blair		2020	17:17.9		49
50	Alexander Moore		Northwest	2019	17:18.2		50
51	Eldon Phillips		Northwood	2018	17:18.4		51
52	Edward Lee		Churchill	2020	17:18.6		52
53	Cooper Hall		Quince Orchard	2020	17:20.5		53
54	Jack O'Grady		Blake		2018	17:20.6		54
55	Michael Murphy		Whitman		2019	17:21.2		55
56	Gabriel Worthington	Blair		2020	17:21.2		56
57	Ezra Dessie		Paint Branch	2019	17:23.4		57
58	Javel Coleman		Northwest	2018	17:23.6		58
59	Timothy Jiang		Wootton		2019	17:24.0		59
60	Mitchell Fanger		Wootton		2018	17:24.2		60
61	Abou Sow		Blair		2019	17:25.2		61
62	Lucas Fernandez		Clarksburg	2019	17:25.2		62
63	Ryan Holland		Blair		2018	17:26.5		63
64	Miguel Salcido		Quince Orchard	2018	17:27.3		64
65	Gregory Garner		Whitman		2021	17:27.7		65
66	Amir Van Gieson		Wootton		2018	17:28.3		66
67	Joseph Pohoryles	Wootton		2019	17:28.3		67
68	Jason Hsu		Poolesville	2019	17:30.8		68
69	William Moulec		Walter Johnson	2018	17:30.8		69
70	Johan Deyonou		Einstein	2020	17:31.2		70
71	Matthew Cauley		Whitman		2020	17:32.1		71
72	Jonathan Botello	Clarksburg	2018	17:32.2		72
73	Byron Olsen		Magruder	2018	17:32.5		73
74	Joshua Tiren		Poolesville	2018	17:33.6		74
75	Kolbey Woodard		Northwest	2018	17:34.2		75
76	Andrew Misura		Churchill	2020	17:37.0		76
77	Walta Neguse		Northwood	2019	17:37.0		77
78	Zach Goldman		Northwest	2018	17:37.1		78
79	Jackson Shawen		Quince Orchard	2018	17:37.3		79
80	Joey Caiazza-Blum	B-CC		2020	17:37.8		80
81	Justin Bloomberg	Sherwood	2019	17:37.9		81
82	Tsach Mackey		Churchill	2021	17:38.4		82
83	Ben Simpson		Einstein	2019	17:39.2		83
84	Jairo Huaylinos		Poolesville	2019	17:39.5		84
85	Kevin McAuliffe		B-CC		2019	17:40.2		85
86	James Cobau		B-CC		2018	17:41.0		86
87	Meehir Bhalla		Wootton		2019	17:41.4		87
88	Michael Zhang		Churchill	2019	17:41.5	
89	Sam Eig			Clarksburg	2020	17:41.8		88
90	Connor O'brien		R. Montgomery	2019	17:42.4		89
91	Ethan Russell		Sherwood	2020	17:43.1		90
92	Howard Kirk		Rockville	2019	17:45.5		91
93	Tyrees Hibbert		Watkins Mill	2018	17:47.6		92

Teams with Five or More Ranked Runners
=========================================
Pl	School		Projected Points
=========================================
1.	Richard Montgomery	127
2. 	Whitman			172
3.	B-CC			176
4.	Northwood		179
5.	Northwest		188
6.	Einstein		190
7.	Churchill		204
8.	Blair			220
9.	Wootton			232
10.	Clarksburg		246
11.	Poolesville		260
	
Teams with Four Ranked Runners: Paint Branch, Quince Orchard, Sherwood


The Ranking Formula

Mocorunning's Ranking Formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. After a meet is scored, there is a point exchange among the ranked runners. One of the important things to know is that there is no reward for running "fast times" and no penalty for running "slow times." In other words there is absolutely no benefit to running a fast course like the DCXC course compared to a difficult course like Watkins Mill. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.

The ranking you see on this page exactly matches the names on the week 7 ranking published on 10/15/2017 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are "supposed" to finish according to the ranking.

To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It's not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It's the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. Weather is also a factor, but we have had great weather at the county meet for the last several years. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.

The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each of the last three years plus a line showing the average finish time between those three years. 2015 was far and away the fastest race in history and it had to do with the race being run on a Monday afternoon on a beautiful day with dry weather leading up to it. I am guessing that not every year will be the fastest year ever and we will regress back towards a more typical year like 2014 and 2016. Under the assumption that 2017 will be an average year, meaning that this year's top 100 varsity high school runners are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected line to land on the blue AVG line as closely as possible. I can't manipulate the curvature of the red line. The curvature of the red line is dictated by the ranking/points system. I can only move my red line up or down vertically which I did until I felt that I had the best overlay. Doing this exercise ensured that the projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.






Article Comments - Add A Comment

NameComment

white
2017-10-17 20:25:21

all types of messed up no way obsaa is placing 2nd over lockett, suhr, unger, etc

Ranked Runner
2017-10-18 09:28:35

Pretty cool ranking system. But just saying I’ll run faster than what’s projected

Ryun
2017-10-18 09:39:54

Wow, there's really no clear favorite this year for the first time since 2012 (and even that was just a two-man race). Can't wait!

E. Stein
2017-10-19 13:59:39

I like the system, but I'd be very surprised to see only 2 or 3 sub 16's, especially Ryan Locket at a 16:10


2017-10-20 18:29:23

ya'll ready for the mmmmeet!!!

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