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Girls XC County Championship Projections
By: Kevin Milsted
webmaster@mocorunning.com
2019-10-15


Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 6 (10/13/2019). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.

Projected County Championship 5k Times
========================================================================================================
Pl	Name			School			Year		Projected Time	Points
========================================================================================================
1	Charlotte Turesson	Richard Montgomery	2021		16:59.8		1
2	Jenna Goldberg		Walter Johnson		2020		17:22.3		2
3	Ella Gaul		Walter Johnson		2021		18:32.0		3
4	Katie Kaneko		Sherwood		2022		18:34.2		4
5	Avery Jackson		Clarksburg		2020		18:53.9		5
6	Emmersen Weinberg	Whitman			2020		19:09.1		6
7	Alexis Whitehorn-Coriz	Damascus		2020		19:15.3		7
8	Alicia Lauwers		Whitman			2020		19:15.9		8
9	Alexa Avila		Blair			2023		19:19.8		9
10	Anna Baldwin		Wootton			2020		19:21.6		10
11	Madeleine Blaisdell	Whitman			2020		19:25.6		11
12	Helena Lee		Northwest		2020		19:32.4		12
13	Ellie Rogers		Walter Johnson		2022		19:37.2		13
14	Devon Derrenbacher	Gaithersburg		2022		19:39.4		14
15	Chelsea Montau		Seneca Valley		2021		19:41.7		15
16	Isabelle Senfaute	Walter Johnson		2022		19:44.7		16
17	Elizabeth Sklaire	Whitman			2020		19:46.1		17
18	Emily Gravell		Sherwood		2021		19:49.5		18
19	Rebecca Vasconez	Wootton			2023		19:49.7		19
20	Elsa Benhamou		B-CC			2021		19:50.6		20
21	Victoria Shumakovich	Wootton			2020		19:57.6		21
22	Anaiya Bobo		Northwood		2021		20:01.8		22
23	Emilie Gros-Slovinska	Whitman			2023		20:01.8		23
24	Anna Bodmer		Poolesville		2023		20:06.4		24
25	Christy Trang		Sherwood		2021		20:09.3		25
26	Ana Bastos		Whitman			2022		20:10.2		26
27	Alana Dyce-Giraud	Gaithersburg		2022		20:11.9		27
28	Olivia Rosemond		Northwood		2022		20:15.6		28
29	Lauren Anderson		Churchill		2022		20:17.6		29
30	Noelle Hailu		Northwest		2022		20:17.6		30
31	Leah Kannan		Blair			2020		20:18.3		31
32	Amelia Burkhard		Walter Johnson		2022		20:20.1		32
33	Mira Diamond-Berman	Blair			2020		20:25.1		33
34	K.C. Ashiogwu		Gaithersburg		2020		20:25.7		34
35	Kiara Chuang		Whitman			2023		20:27.2		35
36	Maya Ducker		Northwood		2023		20:28.6		36
37	Rachel Wilson		B-CC			2021		20:28.6		37
38	Mikayla Durr		Poolesville		2021		20:30.1		38
39	Soraya Bernal		B-CC			2021		20:33.5		39
40	Bridget Kelly		Churchill		2022		20:34.2		40
41	Julianne Yao		Wootton			2023		20:36.8		41
42	Abigail Hill		Churchill		2023		20:37.9		42
43	Camille Gagne		Walter Johnson		2021		20:38.3		43
44	Emely Vela		Damascus		2021		20:39.1		44
45	Abbey Zheng		Churchill		2020		20:40.1		45
46	Lauren Kuo		Churchill		2020		20:40.6		46
47	Alyssa D'Arpa		Wootton			2020		20:42.0		47
48	Jennifer Li		Wootton			2021		20:42.1		48
49	Arianna Langstein	Gaithersburg		2022		20:42.1		49
50	Catherine Ledoux	Wootton			2021		20:44.1		50
51	Fiona Kelleher		B-CC			2020		20:46.0		51
52	Logan Rohde		Poolesville		2020		20:46.6		52
53	Neva Jane Maldonado	B-CC			2021		20:48.1		53
54	Jessica Bowen		Churchill		2020		20:49.9		54
55	Caitlin Cowan		Whitman			2022		20:50.6	
56	Sophia Morales		Walter Johnson		2021		20:50.9		55
57	Aiko Abo Dominguez	B-CC			2022		20:52.1		56
58	Zara Kanold-Tso		Churchill		2023		20:53.4		57
59	Tori Tracey		Gaithersburg		2021		20:54.0		58
60	Cecelia Dworak		Blair			2020		20:54.5		59
61	Caroline Robertson	Einstein		2020		20:54.6		60
62	Anna Nardone		Magruder		2021		20:57.5		61
63	Jessica Penry		Wootton			2020		20:59.0	


Projected Team Scores (5 or more ranked runners)
=================================================
1. Whitman		65
2. Walter Johnson	66
3. Wootton		138
4. Gaithersburg		182
5. B-CC			200
6. Churchill		202

Four Ranked Runners: Blair
Three Ranked Runners: Poolesville, Sherwood, Northwood


Mocorunning's ranking formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula compares runners in every race throughout the season and year after year. The finish times only matter to the extent that finish times of all ranked runners will be compared and scored against all other ranked runners in that race. There is no reward for running "fast times" at a course in North Carolina that no one else traveled to. Likewise, there is no penalty for running "slow times." In other words there is absolutely no benefit to running a fast course like the Great American course compared to a difficult course like Hereford. The most important thing for mobility within the ranking is beating other ranked runners by as many seconds as possible.

The projections you see on this page exactly match the names on the week 6 ranking published on 10/13/2019 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the cutoff to make the ranking. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the cutoff to make the ranking. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are supposed to finish according to the ranking.

To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It's not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It's the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year. Weather is also a factor, and we saw that impact last year's championship meet in a big way. More on that in a second.

The chart below shows the county championship varsity race plotted for each of the last five years plus a line showing the average finish times for 2014 to 2017. It should jump out at you immediately the black dots representing finish times from 2018. You can see immediately how much slower last year was compared to the previous four years. The explanation is simple: It rained all season, it rained in the days leading up to the meet, and it rained during the meet. All other years were dry and ideal conditions. We are expected to get some rain on Wednesday but otherwise it should be another ideal weather day for the 2019 county championship. In projecting times for 2019, I threw out 2018 as an anomoly not expected to repeat.

Under the assumption that 2019 will be an average year, meaning that this year's top 100 varsity high school runners are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected dots to land on the blue AVG line as closely as possible. I cannot manipulate the curvature of the red line. The curvature of the red line is dictated by the ranking/points system. I can only move my red line up or down vertically which I did until I felt that I had the best overlay. I did not look at the first ranked runner. I aimed to line up the 20th to 40th ranked runners as closely as possible to the average 20th to 40th place runners from 2014 to 2017. Doing this exercise ensured that the projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.

Lastly, let's address the elephant in the room. 16:59.8? You probably think that I am trolling my readers.

If asked if I really thought we were going to see a sub-17, my answer is it doesn't matter what I think. Here is why the ranking formula spit out a 16:59. With the exception of Goldberg, no Montgomery County runner has run within 60 seconds of Charlotte Turesson this season. With the exception of Turesson and WJ's Ella Gaul, no Montgomery County runner has run within 60 seconds of Jenna Goldberg. Charlotte Turesson and Jenna Goldberg were able to amass an incredible amount of points in this ranking system this year because of their dominance over other Montgomery County ranked runners. As it sits currently, the ranking system dictates that Charlotte Turesson and Jenna Goldberg must be at least 60 seconds faster than every other ranked runner including Ella Gaul, Katie Kaneko, and Avery Jackson. That is not a controversial statement, is it? Do the projected times of the next 40 ranked runners also seem reasonable? Will the #20 runner run 19:50.6 and will the #40 runner run 20:34.2? The last five year of the Montgomery County Championship Meet suggests that would be typical. Then if the projected times of Ella Gaul (18:32.0), Katie Kaneko (18:34.2), Avery Jackson (18:53.9) and the next 40 runners seem reasonable, is it not also reasonable that Goldberg and Turesson must finish 70+ seconds faster than any of those three? If your answer is yes, then maybe it is not so unthinkable that we could see a new course record in the low 17's on Saturday. #ItsOkaytoBelieve






NameComment

Wut
2019-10-15 18:31:30

Troll. And yes I read the entire paragraph. Lol


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