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Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 6 (10/11/2026). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Boys Projected County Championship 5k Times
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Pl Name School Year Projected Time Pt
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1 Dimitrios Rementelas Sherwood 2028 15:21.0 1
2 Ioannis Rementelas Sherwood 2028 15:41.3 2
3 Ian Fisher Northwood 2028 15:55.4 3
4 Bereket Eshetu Northwood 2028 16:01.7 4
5 Alec Mostofi Bethesda Chevy Chase 2027 16:01.7 5
6 Avery Smith Sherwood 2028 16:06.1 6
7 Jonah Greszler Walt Whitman 2027 16:07.2 7
8 Duncan O'Connor Rockville 2029 16:17.0 8
9 Kaosisochi Nwankwo Springbrook 2028 16:21.2 9
10 Brandon Kneisler Thomas S. Wootton 2028 16:28.7 10
11 Zachary Oh James H. Blake 2027 16:30.4 11
12 William Del Sole Wheaton 2027 16:31.6 12
13 Nathan Rakouskas Montgomery Blair 2029 16:35.3 13
14 Lev Brener Wheaton 2028 16:40.7 14
15 Darly Philogene Springbrook 2027 16:41.2 15
16 Leonardo Bracciale Bethesda Chevy Chase 2028 16:42.1 16
17 Ethan Dimmerling Poolesville 2027 16:43.2 17
18 Samuel Zhang Winston Churchill 2027 16:47.3 18
19 Andrew Mullens Montgomery Blair 2028 16:47.5 19
20 Nir Arieli Walter Johnson 2030 16:50.3 20
21 Carter Robinson Walter Johnson 2028 16:55.3 21
22 Hanly Muller Albert Einstein 2027 16:57.5 22
23 Dagmawi Tewedros Springbrook 2028 16:58.3 23
24 Alex Von Heideken Bethesda Chevy Chase 2028 16:59.2 24
25 Krish Sood Winston Churchill 2028 17:01.9 25
26 James Edmonds-Moore Albert Einstein 2028 17:02.0 26
27 Henry Skinner Quince Orchard 2029 17:03.0 27
28 Alex Zirkelbach Sherwood 2028 17:03.1 28
29 Anay Sood Winston Churchill 2030 17:04.0 29
30 Timothy Burger Northwest 2029 17:04.7 30
31 Deric Azure Rockville 2028 17:06.6 31
32 Ian Melgosa Northwood 2027 17:07.4 32
33 Emiliano Dracoulis Vargas Walt Whitman 2029 17:07.5 33
34 Exavier Watson Clarksburg 2027 17:08.9 34
35 Nathaniel Kaneshige Northwest 2027 17:09.0 35
36 Sean Heath Gaithersburg 2029 17:10.8 36
37 Jacob Blitstein Bethesda Chevy Chase 2029 17:11.2 37
38 Inder Haugen Richard Montgomery 2027 17:11.3 38
39 Gabriel Nguyen Bethesda Chevy Chase 2029 17:13.8 39
40 Jaylen Shah Winston Churchill 2028 17:14.0 40
41 Paxton Cain Albert Einstein 2027 17:14.4 41
42 Caleb Charmatz Sherwood 2027 17:17.0 42
43 Eliyab Sebsibe Seneca Valley 2027 17:17.6 43
44 Wesley Blenkinsop Montgomery Blair 2030 17:18.0 44
45 Blake Robinson Walter Johnson 2028 17:18.4 45
46 Gregory Kilby Sherwood 2029 17:18.5 46
47 Treyson Goode Sherwood 2027 17:18.5 47
48 Jacob Lebenkoff Damascus 2030 17:18.7 48
49 Henry Delovitch Albert Einstein 2027 17:19.8 49
50 Craig Brameyer Clarksburg 2029 17:20.0 50
51 Jack Zincke Thomas S. Wootton 2027 17:20.5 51
52 Mathias Bizuayehu Seneca Valley 2028 17:21.8 52
53 Francis Muljo Albert Einstein 2029 17:22.0 53
54 Ahmed Tandina Montgomery Blair 2028 17:22.0 54
55 Yonathan Nigussie Sherwood 2028 17:22.0
56 Benjamin Sweeney Quince Orchard 2027 17:22.4 55
57 Balin Savage Montgomery Blair 2027 17:22.5 56
58 Evan Huang Richard Montgomery 2027 17:22.8 57
59 Noah Quezada Northwest 2029 17:23.2 58
60 Brandon Min Thomas S. Wootton 2029 17:23.4 59
61 Braeden Taylor Rockville 2027 17:24.4 60
62 Cruz Carbonell Damascus 2029 17:26.0 61
63 Evan Hodge Quince Orchard 2027 17:31.4 62
64 Wesley Alvarez Northwest 2027 17:32.5 63
Projected Team Scores (Teams with 5+ ranked runners)
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School Projected Points
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1. Sherwood 79
2. Bethesda Chevy Chase 121
3. Montgomery Blair 186
4. Albert Einstein 191
Teams with Four Ranked Runners: Churchill, Northwest
Teams with Three Ranked Runners: Northwood, Quince Orchard, Springbrook, Rockville, Wootton, Walter Johnson
Mocorunning's ranking formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula is a system of point stealing. Points are stolen by finishing closer to or further ahead of other ranked runners compared to what is "expected." It is an interesting alternative to stagnant rankings of season best 5k times. Every race counts. Every race is an opportunity to perform better than expected relative to other ranked runners.
The projections you see on this page exactly match the names on the week 6 ranking published on 10/11/2026 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the ranking cutoff. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the ranking cutoff. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are expected to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It is not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It is the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race finishers plotted for each year since the course was modified in 2011. With fourteen years of history on the course, the average line is well-defined. You can see that there have been some slow years (2018, 2021, 2022, 2023) and some very fast years (2015 and 2017). Weather played a roll in 2018 and 2021 when the course was particularly wet. Most other years have been dry, and the athletes dictated the speed of the course. The pandemic clearly affected the depth of the varsity race since 2021.
Last year, I decided to make the assumption that the boys we are back to "average." The boys were actually much better than average last year, and that moves the average line slightly. I would be inclined to say that the boys will again be better than average, but I don't want to reach too much. Weather is one of the most influential factors in course speed. As I write this, it has rained all day Sunday and there is a possibility that rain will further dampen the course later this week.
Under the assumption that 2026 will be an average year, meaning that this year's middle tier varsity runners are no better or worse than a typical year, I want my RED projected dots to land on the black AVG line as closely as possible. I cannot manipulate the curvature of the red dot curve. The curvature of the red dot curve is dictated by the ranking system. I can only move my red line up or down vertically to match the historical results profile of the county championship meet. I aimed to line up the 20th to 40th ranked runners as closely as possible to the average line, paying little attention to the top ranked runners. Doing this exercise ensured that the projections are in line with the history of the meet on this course.
Editorializing, while keeping most runners tight to the average trend line, the ranking formula projects a potential course record for the first place finisher. And why not? Dimitrios Rementelas was five seconds off the course record last year and is now running better than ever. Many capable runners have fallen short of Chase Weaverling's 2012 15:25.0 course record, and the reason is usually the weather or a lack of competition. Weaverling himself could not break his junior year record when he had less competition as a senior. If Dimitrios Rementelas, the clear favorite, runs the entire race solo as Mocorunning's ranking suggests he will, it will be a formidable challenge to cross the finish line faster than any runner who came before him.
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