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Below you will find projected finish times for each of Mocorunning's ranked runners as of Week 6 (10/11/2026). Scroll to the bottom to read how the projected times were determined.
Girls Projected County Championship 5k Times
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Pl Name School Year Projected Time Pt
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1 Eleanor Finnegan Thomas S. Wootton 2029 18:11.4 1
2 Madeline Kelly Clarksburg 2027 18:14.4 2
3 Katherine Morey Winston Churchill 2027 18:17.2 3
4 Nya Stoian Bethesda Chevy Chase 2027 19:10.4 4
5 Blake Ferullo Poolesville 2030 19:13.9 5
6 Emily Hogan Richard Montgomery 2030 19:19.4 6
7 Maya Gros-Slovinska Walt Whitman 2028 19:24.5 7
8 Kinjal Kapoor Walt Whitman 2028 19:28.7 8
9 Emily Cornelius Walt Whitman 2029 19:37.7 9
10 Adelaide Keller Richard Montgomery 2027 19:37.9 10
11 Sydney Chang Thomas S. Wootton 2030 19:41.2 11
12 Noemi Keller Richard Montgomery 2029 20:01.9 12
13 Ally Zuba Winston Churchill 2027 20:02.0 13
14 Allie Hage Bethesda Chevy Chase 2029 20:04.9 14
15 Ashlee McIntyre Clarksburg 2029 20:07.4 15
16 Sadie Rice Bethesda Chevy Chase 2027 20:07.6 16
17 Nadia Lund Winston Churchill 2028 20:08.2 17
18 Adelaide Ryan Gaithersburg 2027 20:13.2 18
19 Emilee Carey Clarksburg 2029 20:13.9 19
20 Rafaella Friedman Walter Johnson 2030 20:14.7 20
21 Leela Joshi Albert Einstein 2027 20:15.0 21
22 Natalie Farquharson Bethesda Chevy Chase 2028 20:15.2 22
23 Ava Summerfield Bethesda Chevy Chase 2027 20:17.1 23
24 Marcela Mason-Rodriguez Montgomery Blair 2027 20:21.0 24
25 Olivia Dickerson Thomas S. Wootton 2029 20:22.1 25
26 Ashley Polcawich Magruder 2027 20:25.7 26
27 Alexis Spencer Walter Johnson 2029 20:26.4 27
28 Ingrid Sullivan Montgomery Blair 2027 20:30.5 28
29 Josette Ventura Damascus 2030 20:32.4 29
30 Marguerite Mauldin Montgomery Blair 2029 20:32.9 30
31 Isabella Deadrick Rockville 2027 20:39.5 31
32 Lindsay Gallagher Bethesda Chevy Chase 2028 20:41.1 32
33 Emilia Pardo Winston Churchill 2027 20:42.4 33
34 Era Ciobanu Bethesda Chevy Chase 2028 20:43.4 34
35 Samantha Polcawich Magruder 2027 20:47.5 35
36 Divya Mudunuri Northwest 2028 20:48.0 36
37 Mariana Song Bethesda Chevy Chase 2028 20:51.0
38 Bhavya Chidambaranatha Poolesville 2027 20:51.3 37
39 Zayra Kane James H. Blake 2029 20:51.4 38
40 Kylie Gray Damascus 2028 20:58.3 39
41 Haley Fout Walter Johnson 2030 21:01.5 40
42 Emily Shanahan Winston Churchill 2030 21:02.0 41
43 Alexandra Pevzner Bethesda Chevy Chase 2029 21:03.7
44 Isabel Wurster Bethesda Chevy Chase 2029 21:10.0
45 Kylie Zhang Poolesville 2027 21:11.5 42
46 Grace Greszler Walt Whitman 2030 21:11.6 43
Projected Team Scores (Teams with 5+ ranked runners)
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School Projected Points
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1. Bethesda Chevy Chase 79
2. Winston Churchill 107
Teams with Four Ranked Runners: Whitman
Teams with Three Ranked Runners: Clarksburg, Montgomery Blair, Poolesville, Richard Montgomery, Thomas S. Wootton, Walter Johnson
Mocorunning's ranking formula is explained HERE. The ranking formula is a system of point stealing. Points are stolen by finishing closer to or further ahead of other ranked runners compared to what is "expected." It is an interesting alternative to stagnant rankings of season best 5k times. Every race counts. Every race is an opportunity to perform better than expected relative to other ranked runners.
The projections you see on this page exactly match the names on the week 6 ranking published on 10/11/2026 with a couple notable changes. Private school runners were removed and the points were replaced with projected finish times for the county championship course at Gaithersburg. Do the points convert directly to 5k times? No, not exactly, but the points do convert to a time scale. 1 second = 2 points. Therefore, if the top ranked runner had 200 points, he or she would be ranked 200 points or 100 seconds above the ranking cutoff. You can assign that top ranked runner any 5k time, and he or she would be 100 seconds (1:40) above the ranking cutoff. Take any two runners and subtract their point totals, divide by two, and you will know how far apart they are expected to finish according to the ranking.
To assign the projected times to all the runners, you really only need to assign a projected time to one runner. Once one runner has an assigned projected time, the point scale dictates the finish times for every other runner within the ranking. It is not the first or last ranked runner that you want to key off of. It is the runners in the middle range that will be the most consistent year after year. The great thing about the county championship is that we have the same exact number of teams entered in the meet at the same time of the year, every year. The caliber of the middle tier varsity runners will not fluctuate very much from year to year.
The chart below shows the county championship varsity race finishers plotted for each year since the course was modified in 2011. The pandemic clearly affected the depth of the varsity girls race since 2021, but last year the girls were back very close to the 15-year average trend line. I aimed to line up this years ranking with the 2011-2025 average trend line, paying particular attention to places 20 to 40.
Editorializing, the graphic below demonstrates how far ahead of the pack the ranking anticipates the top three runners to be from the rest of the field. The ranking also projects that the third place finisher in the girls race could be the fastest third place finisher in county championship meet history. The ranking formula does not know who the kids are or their eating, sleeping, and training habits. It only crunches numbers, and this year it predicts that we will have a heck of a race for the individual title on Saturday. Whether you agree or disagree with the order of the ranked runners, Saturday's individual county champion will be ranked as the #1 MCPS runner by Sunday. It's in the rules.
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